from the ashes of Syria to the sands of Libya: the UN's critical and urgent role in counteracting Russian expansionism
The unexpected downfall of the Assad regime in Syria has reverberated throughout the Middle East, representing a significant blow to Russia's geopolitical ambitions in the area. While many Syrians may celebrate the end of Assad's oppressive rule, the nation now faces the formidable task of uniting amidst a tangled landscape of conflicting factions and ideologies. This volatile environment fosters further instability, and Russia, with its opportunistic foreign policy, is already scouting for new avenues to extend its influence.
For years, Russia sustained the Assad regime with military aid and by deploying its forces to secure a strategic foothold in the Eastern Mediterranean. This intervention granted Russia crucial naval and air bases along Syria's coastline, enhancing its military presence in a region vital to global trade and security. However, recent developments have highlighted the shortcomings of Moscow's strategy. Despite considerable support, the Assad regime ultimately succumbed to internal strife and opposition pressure, shattering Russia's aspirations in Syria. This defeat not only diminishes Russia's reputation as a dependable ally but also curtails Iran's influence, as Syria has long been a key component of Tehran's "Shia crescent" strategy.
The fall of Assad also raises the prospect of a prolonged and violent civil war, potentially leading to Syria's fragmentation along sectarian and ideological lines. The similarities to the Balkanization of Yugoslavia are alarming, and the possibility of a divided Syria, marred by internal conflict and vulnerable to extremist exploitation, is deeply troubling. Each passing day without a viable solution exacerbates the risk of this nightmare scenario, uprooting the lives of countless Syrians and sending shockwaves throughout the region.
In light of this setback, Russia will now likely pivot its focus more aggressively to Libya, a nation long beset by disorder and civil war. Libya's strategic location on the Mediterranean, abundant oil reserves, and proximity to Europe make it an attractive target for Russian expansion. Moscow has already established a foothold in Libya by backing the Libyan National Army (LNA) and deploying Wagner and affiliated mercenaries. The upheaval in Syria is likely to embolden Russia to further deepen its influence in Libya. With the potential loss of its bases in Syria, Libya presents an alternative means for Russia to maintain military presence in the Mediterranean. Additionally, Libya's oil wealth offers Russia significant economic leverage and the ability to disrupt energy supplies to Europe. By backing the LNA and taking advantage of the political vacuum, Russia aims to solidify its foothold in Libya and shape its future to suit its interests.
This is a perilous game, fraught with the danger of exacerbating Libya's instability and worsening the humanitarian crisis. The United States, Europe and particularly the United Nations, must act decisively to prevent Libya from becoming yet another battleground for great power rivalry.
The UN has a critical opportunity to lead efforts to stabilize Libya and thwart further Russian encroachment. The UN Security Council should urgently convene all parties involved in the Libyan conflict, including representatives from various factions, regional powers, and international actors. The objective must be to facilitate the establishment of a unified, representative government capable of restoring order and meeting the needs of the Libyan populace.
To achieve this, the UN must, under the leadership of Stephanie Khoury, the UN envoy to Libya:
* Facilitate Inclusive Dialogue: Bring all Libyan parties to the negotiating table, ensuring diverse voices and interests are included. This dialogue should strive to build consensus on a political roadmap for a unified Libya.
* Support the Formation of a Unified Government: Guide the selection of a new, inclusive government committed to democratic principles and human rights, based on the seven Prime Minister candidates already identified by the Libyan House of Representatives through an inclusive process. The new Prime Minister and their government must have the legitimacy and capacity from international stakeholders to meet the needs of all Libyans and steer the country toward stability.
The UN's active and decisive engagement in Libya is essential to prevent the nation from becoming another casualty of great power politics. By facilitating the establishment of a unified government and providing crucial support, the UN can help avert further instability and ensure a more peaceful and prosperous future for Libya.
However, Syria is at a critical crossroads as well. As the situation in Syria grows increasingly precarious, it is imperative that the United States does not abandon its commitments in the region. A leadership vacuum left by American diplomatic withdrawal would be detrimental—not only to Syria's fragile landscape but also to the long-term safety and security of the United States. The U.S. must maintain a strategic presence and actively work alongside allies to ensure that extremist factions do not capitalize on the disarray left in the wake of Assad's downfall. Abandonment would embolden adversaries and destabilize an already volatile region, ultimately endangering U.S. interests. It is also vital for all regional actors, including Israel, to exercise restraint and avoid actions in Syria that could exacerbate the situation or exploit the current instability for their own gain.
The focus must remain on supporting a peaceful and inclusive transition in Syria as well as preventing potential Russian expansionism in Libya. Both tracks must be followed together now.
Failure to act decisively in Libya now would not only betray the hopes of the Libyan people but also invite further Russian encroachment in the region. Failure to act in Syria could destablize the country and the region for another 50 years. Now is the time for the United States, UK and Europe working alongside the United Nations, to step forward and ensure unity and stability rather than conflict and fragmentation in both these countries.
The stakes are high, and the world is watching closely; it is time for the world, and especially the UN to rise to the occasion and demonstrate that it can be an effective broker of peace and stability amidst the rubble left behind by decades of conflict.
