the world on the precipice: why Ukraine’s fight is everyone's fight - even America’s

As we get closer to a new American Presidency and increased talk of how to end the war in Ukraine, we must not forget the reason we need to continue our support for Ukraine. The war in Ukraine, ignited by Russia's unprovoked invasion, is not merely a regional dispute. It's a pivotal moment in history, a test of the global order and the principles of territorial integrity and national sovereignty.

The war in Ukraine may seem distant to many Americans, but the outcome of this war will have far-reaching consequences, shaping the world we live in for generations to come. The United States has long championed the principles of democracy, freedom, and the rule of law. These very principles are under attack in Ukraine. A Russian victory would not only extinguish the flame of liberty in Ukraine but also embolden authoritarian regimes worldwide, undermining the rules-based international order that has ensured peace and stability for decades.  

Moreover, the economic consequences of inaction in Ukraine would be severe. Prolonged conflict and instability would disrupt global trade and investment, leading to economic hardship and potentially a global recession. The United States, as the world's largest economy, would not be immune to these effects. The economic consequences of inaction in Ukraine could be far more severe than the economic consequences of COVID-19. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp decline in economic activity, but it was relatively short-lived. The war in Ukraine has the potential to cause a much longer and more severe economic downturn.

In addition, the security implications of a Russian victory are significant. An emboldened Russia, and other authoritarian leaders unchecked by the international community, could pose a direct threat to the security of the United States and its allies.

The stakes are high. Nothing less than a world order in balance and every freedom that we hold dear.

The core principle at stake in Ukraine is the sanctity of internationally recognized borders. If Russia is allowed to succeed in its blatant aggression, it will set a dangerous precedent, encouraging other authoritarian regimes to pursue their expansionist ambitions. This could lead to a cascade of conflicts, destabilizing entire regions and plunging the world into an era of chaos and uncertainty.

Some argue that direct confrontation with Russia should be avoided at all costs, fearing escalation and the specter of nuclear war. However, history teaches us that appeasement of aggressors rarely leads to peace. It merely encourages them, delaying the inevitable conflict while allowing them to grow stronger. The lessons of the 1930s, when the world's inaction towards Nazi Germany's expansionism ultimately led to World War II, should not be forgotten.

Russia's actions in Ukraine are part of a broader trend of rising authoritarianism around the world. China's increasingly assertive posture in the South China Sea, Iran's nuclear ambitions, and North Korea's continued defiance of international norms all point to a growing challenge to the rules-based international order. If these challenges are not met with strength and resolve, the world risks sliding into a new era of great power competition and conflict.

Failure to militarily defeat Russia could have dire consequences:

• Emboldened Authoritarians: A Russian victory would embolden other authoritarian regimes, leading to further aggression and instability.

• Global Arms Race: The West's perceived weakness would trigger a global arms race as countries scramble to bolster their defenses in an increasingly insecure world.

• Erosion of Freedom: The principles of freedom and democracy would suffer a major setback, emboldening authoritarians and undermining human rights worldwide.

• Economic Disruption: Prolonged conflict and instability would disrupt global trade and investment, leading to economic hardship and potentially a global recession.

While direct military intervention carries risks, the potential consequences of inaction are far greater. A decisive show of force by the West could achieve the following:

• Deterrence: A clear demonstration of Western resolve could deter further Russian aggression and prevent the conflict from escalating.

• Swift Victory: Overwhelming military superiority could lead to a swift victory, minimizing casualties and restoring Ukraine's territorial integrity.

• Defense of Freedom and Democracy: Intervention would send a powerful message that the world stands with Ukraine and will defend the principles of freedom, democracy, and self-determination.

• Strengthening the Global Order: A successful intervention would reaffirm the strength of the rules-based international order and deter future aggression.

A successful intervention requires a coordinated effort by the international community:

• NATO Deployment: NATO should deploy a significant military force to Ukraine, including ground troops, air power, and naval support.

• No-Fly Zone: A no-fly zone should be enforced over Ukraine to deny Russia air superiority.

• Economic Sanctions: Crippling economic sanctions should be maintained and expanded to further pressure Russia and the countries that are helping Russia sustain the war - China, Iran, and North Korea.

• Diplomatic Engagement: Diplomatic efforts should continue to seek a negotiated settlement but from a position of strength that ensures Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

The world stands at a crossroads. The outcome of the conflict in Ukraine will have profound implications for global security and stability. The time for hesitation is over. The West must act decisively, committing the necessary military resources to defend Ukraine and defeat Russia. Failure to do so will embolden authoritarianism, undermine the rules-based international order, and pave the way for a future of conflict and chaos. The stakes are too high to allow this to happen. The time to act is now. Not acting now is simply delaying the inevitable confrontation with Russia, which will likely be more challenging and dangerous in the future.

The war in Ukraine is not just about Ukraine. It's about the future of democracy, freedom, and the rules-based international order. Let’s hope that the new Trump Presidency will recognize that Americans have a vested interest in ensuring that these principles prevail. By supporting Ukraine, we are not only defending a sovereign nation but also safeguarding our own values, security, economic interests, and long-term global stability.