Lebanon’s new president signals Hezbollah’s decline and a chance for sovereignty

The election of General Joseph Aoun as Lebanon’s president marks a historic turning point, not just for Lebanon but for the entire region. For decades, Hezbollah, backed by its patron Iran, wielded overwhelming influence over Lebanon’s political landscape, shaping policies and isolating the nation internationally. Now, cracks are appearing in Hezbollah’s once-formidable foundation, and Joseph Aoun’s leadership represents an unprecedented opportunity for Lebanon to reclaim its sovereignty and move beyond the shadow of Hezbollah. 

This shift did not occur overnight. Hezbollah’s dominance was long underpinned by its close ties to Syria and Iran. Bashar al-Assad’s regime provided critical logistical support, including weapons transfers and safe passage for fighters, while Iran financed Hezbollah’s operations and promoted its image as the “resistance” against Israel. However, the regional calculus has changed dramatically. Assad’s removal from power disrupted key supply chains, leaving Hezbollah without one of its lifelines. Simultaneously, Iran, increasingly isolated on the international stage and grappling with domestic unrest, has struggled to sustain its network of regional proxies, including Hezbollah. 

Adding to Hezbollah’s woes were the relentless efforts by Israel to undermine its operational capabilities. In September 2024, Israel launched “Operation Grim Beeper,” a sophisticated cyber and sabotage campaign that crippled Hezbollah’s communications network. Thousands of devices rigged with explosives detonated simultaneously, killing operatives and paralyzing the group’s command structure. Following this, Israel invaded southern Lebanon and executed targeted strikes on Hezbollah’s munitions depots and infrastructure throughout Lebanon. The campaign culminated in the death of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, during an Israeli airstrike in late 2024. These actions have left Hezbollah scrambling to regroup, further weakening its grip on Lebanon. 

Amid this shifting landscape, Joseph Aoun’s election signals a profound change in Lebanon’s political dynamics. For years, Hezbollah thrived under the patronage of Michel Aoun, a former Hezbollah ally who enabled its entrenchment in Lebanese politics. Michel Aoun’s departure, coupled with Hezbollah’s losses in the 2024 parliamentary elections, began the Lebanese people’s rejection of Hezbollah’s influence. Joseph Aoun, a highly respected former commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), embodies a stark departure from the past. Known for his professionalism and independence, he has the leadership qualities necessary to steer Lebanon toward a new chapter. 

However, the path forward is fraught with challenges. Hezbollah remains deeply embedded in Lebanon’s political and social fabric, operating as a state within a state. Though severely depleted, its military arsenal and vast patronage networks still allow it to circumvent the Lebanese government, while its sectarian rhetoric continues to divide the population. Joseph Aoun must tackle the monumental task of dismantling this parallel state while fostering national unity. 

Central to this effort is strengthening the LAF, Lebanon’s most trusted and nonsectarian institution. As Lebanon’s sole legitimate defense force, the LAF must assert the state’s authority over all Lebanese territory, including areas under Hezbollah’s control. International allies, particularly the United States and European nations, should increase their support for the LAF. 

Israel’s recent actions have demonstrated that Hezbollah is not invincible. By targeting its supply chains, leadership, and infrastructure, Israel significantly weakened Hezbollah’s capacity to operate. Combined with Hezbollah’s diminished domestic support and Iran’s weakened regional position, these developments present a rare and fleeting opportunity for Lebanon to act decisively. 

The responsibility, however, does not lie with President Joseph Aoun alone.  

The Lebanese people have endured unimaginable hardships, from the devastating Beirut port explosion to an economic collapse that has plunged much of the population into poverty. They deserve a government that prioritizes their welfare over the interests of armed factions and foreign powers. Joseph Aoun’s presidency represents a chance to fulfill this promise, but it will require bold action and unwavering commitment and support from key international stakeholders.

Lebanon now stands at a crossroads. The convergence of regional shifts — Syria’s uncertain future but one without Assad, Iran’s struggles, and Israel’s decisive blows against Hezbollah — has created a once-in-a-generation opportunity for Lebanon to reclaim its sovereignty and restore regional stability. The question is whether its leaders and the Lebanese people, with support from the international community, can seize this moment.

The answer is YES… but the time to act is now.